Making the Numbers Rain! (Or, The Case for Evan Gattis to be Starting Catcher for the Astros in 2017 and Beyond!)
As the All Star Game draws near, and the Houston Astros keep winning, there are all the speculations surrounding the trade deadline that come with it. Who will get moved? Who will get picked up? Will the team be buyers or sellers at this deadline? All of these questions seem to put a not-so-great spotlight on certain players.
One of the big focal points for the Houston Astros going forward will be what to do with their catching core. Right now, their two catchers in Jason Castro, and your people's champion and mine, Evan Gattis are both quintessential starters in their own right. The only problem is that Jason Castro is the one deemed the current starter, while Gattis remains the backup catcher and DH. But for how long will this really last? Will Castro's pending free agency come into play, allowing Gattis a chance to regain starter status? Or will the team resign/pick up options on both players?
Well, being the journalist I am, I decided to do some extensive research into both of these players in both regular cumulative stats, and against my better judgement, some of the advanced stats as well. So in today's post, I plan to highlight the advantages of both players, and show why, not just in a fan bias, it is clear that Evan Gattis should be the Houston Astros starting catcher after the end of this 2016 campaign. Please bear in mind, Astros fans, this post is in no way meant to discredit Jason Castro, but show why Evan Gattis is the cheaper, and in many ways, the more efficient option.
Let's take a look first at the cumulative offense, and some of my findings by catgeory for this season versus career:
Overall batting average (2016):
Jason Castro - .214
Evan Gattis - .227
Advantage: GATTIS
Overall batting average (Career):
Jason Castro - .235
Evan Gattis - .247
Advantage: GATTIS
Overall on-base percentage, or OBP (2016):
Jason Castro - .343
Evan Gattis - .292
Advantage: CASTRO
OBP for career:
Jason Castro - .313
Evan Gattis - .295
Advantage: CASTRO
Slugging, or SLG for 2016:
Jason Castro - .393
Evan Gattis - .438
Advantage: GATTIS
Slugging for career:
Jason Castro - .392
Evan Gattis - .471
Advantage: GATTIS
On-base plus slugging, or OPS, for 2016:
Jason Castro - .736
Evan Gattis - .730
Advantage: CASTRO
OPS for career:
Jason Castro - .705
Evan Gattis - .766
Advantage: GATTIS
Total Cumulative Offensive Advantages: Castro - 3, Gattis - 5
Advanced Offense (Looking at 2016, only)
Walk Rate:
Jason Castro - 16.4%
Evan Gattis - 8.1%
Advantage: CASTRO
Strikeout, or K Rate:
Jason Castro - 34.8%
Evan Gattis - 24.4%
Advantage: GATTIS
ISO (Isolated Power):
Jason Castro - .179
Evan Gattis - .218
Advantage: No surprise, GATTIS
wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average):
Jason Castro - .326
Evan Gattis - .304
Advantage: CASTRO
wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created):
Jason Castro - 102
Evan Gattis - 89
Advantage: CASTRO
Total Advanced Offensive Advantages: Castro - 3, Gattis - 2
Offensive Assessment: Jason Castro draws more walks, which ultimately contribute to him having the better on-base and advanced numbers over time. However, Evan Gattis' power coupled with his better overall average, OPS and lower strikeout rate indicate that he actually drives in more runs in the here and now rather than create them by way of the walk. While on base is still an area that Gattis can stand to improve in, his slugging abilities are something rarely found in your typical catcher.
So we've seen how both catchers stack up with the bat. Now, let's see how they fare on the defense side of things with their respective gloves. With this stat, we will look at 2016 only:
Cumulative Defense
Fielding Percentage (Formula = Putouts & Assists/The same number plus errors):
Jason Castro - .991
Evan Gattis - .994
Advantage: GATTIS
Range Factor:
Jason Castro - 7.85
Evan Gattis - 10.27
Advantage: GATTIS
CS Ratio (Caught Stealing %):
Jason Castro - 19%
Evan Gattis - 46%
Advantage: GATTIS
Total Cumulative Defensive Advantages: Castro - 0, Gattis - 3
Advanced Fielding and Defense
Catcher's ERA (CERA):
Jason Castro - 4.24
Evan Gattis - 3.21
Advantage: GATTIS
Total DRS (Defensive Runs Saved):
Jason Castro - 4
Evan Gattis - 3
Advantage: CASTRO
Pitch Framing (How a Catcher Presents a Pitch to an Umpire)
oStr% (Percentage of pitches called for strikes that are outside of the strike zone):
Jason Castro - 9.2%
Evan Gattis - 8.2%
Advantage: CASTRO
zBall% (Percentage of pitches called for balls within the strike zone):
Jason Castro - 11.4%
Evan Gattis - 14.8%
Advantage: CASTRO
Total Advanced Defensive Advantages: Castro - 3, Gattis - 1
Defensive Assessment: Castro still gets the upper hand with advanced plays over time. However, it should be noted that even though Castro is a slightly better pitch framer and blocker, Gattis is not that far behind him after much less innings caught in 2016. (Gattis has caught 129 innings, Castro 491.) Plus, Gattis has the better overall catcher ERA and better throwing arm to get out would-be base thieves.
One stat I refuse to look at is WAR (or, wins above replacement). It is a stat that measures how a current player contributes as opposed to what his same replacement player at the same position would do. It is, in my opinion, the worse and most flawed of all advanced statistics, in that it gives WAY too much credit and doubt benefits to minor league players down in respective farm systems. It also is a stat that operates under the assumption that the minor league player at that same position could replace the veteran just that easily. This is why I rebuke it completely in examining current major league players.
Three more stats, however, to be noted in defense of Evan Gattis:
1. When he is a DH, he only bats .189. When he starts behind the plate, he is batting .328. Most recently, Evan is batting .321 (8-for-25) over the past 7 games.
2. The Houston Astros have a winning percentage of .667, or a record of 10-5, in all of the games that Evan Gattis starts behind the plate.
3. One stat that the advanced sabermetrics don't look at is the number of strikeouts averaged per inning caught. I've decided to dub this stat I created with the name, KInn. Here's how the two players stack up on that one so far in 2016:
Jason Castro - 0.86 K/Inn
Evan Gattis - 1.05K/Inn
Advantage: GATTIS
Final Advantage Tally: Castro - 9, **Gattis - 11** (Ironically enough, his jersey number!)
In Conclusion: While Gattis and Castro are both starting catchers that offer significant things to this team and the game of baseball, Evan Gattis gives more bang for the buck. And with Jason Castro being eligible for Free Agency after the end of this season, where he will command somewhere between 8 and 10 million dollars, the losses of him should be cut and Evan Gattis should get the starter job for the Astros in 2017 and beyond.
Jim Crane, Reid Ryan, Jeff Lunhow, A.J. Reed and any other decision maker or front office associate that I may be forgetting should take note on this. Unless you are willing to expand the payroll to keep someone like Castro around while not losing Evan Gattis and his 5.2 million dollar option for 2017, you may just need to cut the Castro chord already. Additionally, Gattis will provide a much better bat the more often he gets to be behind the dish, as the numbers above well indicate.
I know what you Astros fans are thinking, "But wait, who will back up Gattis?!" There are two league ready options:
A. Max Stassi - Despite the injury to his hand, he would be the ideal choice to back up Gattis. Especially, with his pretty solid defense.
B. Tyler White - Okay, BREATHE fans. Before you lose it, let me explain this one. When Jason Castro was on sick leave and Gattis filled in as starter, White was actually considered a third string emergency backup in the event that something happened to Gattis. Why, you ask? Well, what most people don't know was that Tyler White actually spent some years in high school and at Western Carolina doing some work at catcher. Despite coming up through the minor leagues as an infielder, White can still be someone that could be utilized, and may in fact have the better mindset of a backup catcher/DH, when you consider that Evan Gattis needs to be a starting backstop.
Astros fans and front office, I know you love Jason Castro. Hell, I love him, too. But this is a scenario that benefits all parties involved. Castro can sign with a team, if not the Astros, in need of a catcher for the big bucks that he deserves to support himself and his family, including his newborn child. On the flip side, Evan Gattis can finally get back to the position he belongs at as a starting catcher, and not have to deal constantly with the mental and emotional anguish that comes with being a designated hitter, or DH. Lastly, the team itself will have a catcher that can give you benefits and value on BOTH sides of the ball and be well worth the $5.2 million you will spend on him.
Ultimately, I have no say in what will happen, and only time will tell what does. But after doing the research coupled with my fan loyalty, small sample size be damned, it is all too clear how much Evan Gattis deserves this. EL OSO BLANCO for Starting Catcher, 2017 and Beyond for the Houston Astros!!!!
Photo Credit: Sportsnet.ca
Photo Credit: The San Diego Union Tribune
Proof that he works well with the pitching staff. All starters, and some of the bullpen, have mentioned him by name at least once this year in post game interviews. Colin McHugh, pictured second with Evan, can't stop raving about him! Haven't really seen or heard that on Castro's behalf.
Photo Credit: MLB.com
Showing off the cannon of an arm he has. Base thieves, BEWARE!!!!
One of the big focal points for the Houston Astros going forward will be what to do with their catching core. Right now, their two catchers in Jason Castro, and your people's champion and mine, Evan Gattis are both quintessential starters in their own right. The only problem is that Jason Castro is the one deemed the current starter, while Gattis remains the backup catcher and DH. But for how long will this really last? Will Castro's pending free agency come into play, allowing Gattis a chance to regain starter status? Or will the team resign/pick up options on both players?
Well, being the journalist I am, I decided to do some extensive research into both of these players in both regular cumulative stats, and against my better judgement, some of the advanced stats as well. So in today's post, I plan to highlight the advantages of both players, and show why, not just in a fan bias, it is clear that Evan Gattis should be the Houston Astros starting catcher after the end of this 2016 campaign. Please bear in mind, Astros fans, this post is in no way meant to discredit Jason Castro, but show why Evan Gattis is the cheaper, and in many ways, the more efficient option.
Let's take a look first at the cumulative offense, and some of my findings by catgeory for this season versus career:
Overall batting average (2016):
Jason Castro - .214
Evan Gattis - .227
Advantage: GATTIS
Overall batting average (Career):
Jason Castro - .235
Evan Gattis - .247
Advantage: GATTIS
Overall on-base percentage, or OBP (2016):
Jason Castro - .343
Evan Gattis - .292
Advantage: CASTRO
OBP for career:
Jason Castro - .313
Evan Gattis - .295
Advantage: CASTRO
Slugging, or SLG for 2016:
Jason Castro - .393
Evan Gattis - .438
Advantage: GATTIS
Slugging for career:
Jason Castro - .392
Evan Gattis - .471
Advantage: GATTIS
On-base plus slugging, or OPS, for 2016:
Jason Castro - .736
Evan Gattis - .730
Advantage: CASTRO
OPS for career:
Jason Castro - .705
Evan Gattis - .766
Advantage: GATTIS
Total Cumulative Offensive Advantages: Castro - 3, Gattis - 5
Advanced Offense (Looking at 2016, only)
Walk Rate:
Jason Castro - 16.4%
Evan Gattis - 8.1%
Advantage: CASTRO
Strikeout, or K Rate:
Jason Castro - 34.8%
Evan Gattis - 24.4%
Advantage: GATTIS
ISO (Isolated Power):
Jason Castro - .179
Evan Gattis - .218
Advantage: No surprise, GATTIS
wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average):
Jason Castro - .326
Evan Gattis - .304
Advantage: CASTRO
wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created):
Jason Castro - 102
Evan Gattis - 89
Advantage: CASTRO
Total Advanced Offensive Advantages: Castro - 3, Gattis - 2
Offensive Assessment: Jason Castro draws more walks, which ultimately contribute to him having the better on-base and advanced numbers over time. However, Evan Gattis' power coupled with his better overall average, OPS and lower strikeout rate indicate that he actually drives in more runs in the here and now rather than create them by way of the walk. While on base is still an area that Gattis can stand to improve in, his slugging abilities are something rarely found in your typical catcher.
So we've seen how both catchers stack up with the bat. Now, let's see how they fare on the defense side of things with their respective gloves. With this stat, we will look at 2016 only:
Cumulative Defense
Fielding Percentage (Formula = Putouts & Assists/The same number plus errors):
Jason Castro - .991
Evan Gattis - .994
Advantage: GATTIS
Range Factor:
Jason Castro - 7.85
Evan Gattis - 10.27
Advantage: GATTIS
CS Ratio (Caught Stealing %):
Jason Castro - 19%
Evan Gattis - 46%
Advantage: GATTIS
Total Cumulative Defensive Advantages: Castro - 0, Gattis - 3
Advanced Fielding and Defense
Catcher's ERA (CERA):
Jason Castro - 4.24
Evan Gattis - 3.21
Advantage: GATTIS
Total DRS (Defensive Runs Saved):
Jason Castro - 4
Evan Gattis - 3
Advantage: CASTRO
Pitch Framing (How a Catcher Presents a Pitch to an Umpire)
oStr% (Percentage of pitches called for strikes that are outside of the strike zone):
Jason Castro - 9.2%
Evan Gattis - 8.2%
Advantage: CASTRO
zBall% (Percentage of pitches called for balls within the strike zone):
Jason Castro - 11.4%
Evan Gattis - 14.8%
Advantage: CASTRO
Total Advanced Defensive Advantages: Castro - 3, Gattis - 1
Defensive Assessment: Castro still gets the upper hand with advanced plays over time. However, it should be noted that even though Castro is a slightly better pitch framer and blocker, Gattis is not that far behind him after much less innings caught in 2016. (Gattis has caught 129 innings, Castro 491.) Plus, Gattis has the better overall catcher ERA and better throwing arm to get out would-be base thieves.
One stat I refuse to look at is WAR (or, wins above replacement). It is a stat that measures how a current player contributes as opposed to what his same replacement player at the same position would do. It is, in my opinion, the worse and most flawed of all advanced statistics, in that it gives WAY too much credit and doubt benefits to minor league players down in respective farm systems. It also is a stat that operates under the assumption that the minor league player at that same position could replace the veteran just that easily. This is why I rebuke it completely in examining current major league players.
Three more stats, however, to be noted in defense of Evan Gattis:
1. When he is a DH, he only bats .189. When he starts behind the plate, he is batting .328. Most recently, Evan is batting .321 (8-for-25) over the past 7 games.
2. The Houston Astros have a winning percentage of .667, or a record of 10-5, in all of the games that Evan Gattis starts behind the plate.
3. One stat that the advanced sabermetrics don't look at is the number of strikeouts averaged per inning caught. I've decided to dub this stat I created with the name, KInn. Here's how the two players stack up on that one so far in 2016:
Jason Castro - 0.86 K/Inn
Evan Gattis - 1.05K/Inn
Advantage: GATTIS
Final Advantage Tally: Castro - 9, **Gattis - 11** (Ironically enough, his jersey number!)
In Conclusion: While Gattis and Castro are both starting catchers that offer significant things to this team and the game of baseball, Evan Gattis gives more bang for the buck. And with Jason Castro being eligible for Free Agency after the end of this season, where he will command somewhere between 8 and 10 million dollars, the losses of him should be cut and Evan Gattis should get the starter job for the Astros in 2017 and beyond.
Jim Crane, Reid Ryan, Jeff Lunhow, A.J. Reed and any other decision maker or front office associate that I may be forgetting should take note on this. Unless you are willing to expand the payroll to keep someone like Castro around while not losing Evan Gattis and his 5.2 million dollar option for 2017, you may just need to cut the Castro chord already. Additionally, Gattis will provide a much better bat the more often he gets to be behind the dish, as the numbers above well indicate.
I know what you Astros fans are thinking, "But wait, who will back up Gattis?!" There are two league ready options:
A. Max Stassi - Despite the injury to his hand, he would be the ideal choice to back up Gattis. Especially, with his pretty solid defense.
B. Tyler White - Okay, BREATHE fans. Before you lose it, let me explain this one. When Jason Castro was on sick leave and Gattis filled in as starter, White was actually considered a third string emergency backup in the event that something happened to Gattis. Why, you ask? Well, what most people don't know was that Tyler White actually spent some years in high school and at Western Carolina doing some work at catcher. Despite coming up through the minor leagues as an infielder, White can still be someone that could be utilized, and may in fact have the better mindset of a backup catcher/DH, when you consider that Evan Gattis needs to be a starting backstop.
Astros fans and front office, I know you love Jason Castro. Hell, I love him, too. But this is a scenario that benefits all parties involved. Castro can sign with a team, if not the Astros, in need of a catcher for the big bucks that he deserves to support himself and his family, including his newborn child. On the flip side, Evan Gattis can finally get back to the position he belongs at as a starting catcher, and not have to deal constantly with the mental and emotional anguish that comes with being a designated hitter, or DH. Lastly, the team itself will have a catcher that can give you benefits and value on BOTH sides of the ball and be well worth the $5.2 million you will spend on him.
Ultimately, I have no say in what will happen, and only time will tell what does. But after doing the research coupled with my fan loyalty, small sample size be damned, it is all too clear how much Evan Gattis deserves this. EL OSO BLANCO for Starting Catcher, 2017 and Beyond for the Houston Astros!!!!
Photo Credit: Sportsnet.ca
Photo Credit: The San Diego Union Tribune
Proof that he works well with the pitching staff. All starters, and some of the bullpen, have mentioned him by name at least once this year in post game interviews. Colin McHugh, pictured second with Evan, can't stop raving about him! Haven't really seen or heard that on Castro's behalf.
Photo Credit: MLB.com
Showing off the cannon of an arm he has. Base thieves, BEWARE!!!!
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