Observe and Report
As I promised in my last post, and using a Seth Rogen comedy movie title to further prove it, I continue to call out and expose beat writers and publications that allow the constant doubt casting on your people's champion and mine, Evan Gattis to continue. This epidemic will be contained by me, come hell or high water. Today's culprit publication: The Crawfish Boxes.
That's right, SB Nation's infamous Astros blog. The very place that has perpetually forbade me from utilizing their comments sections to prove my points anymore now have two of their writers, Jason Marbach and Curt Leister, posting their own nonsense about not letting Evan Gattis be starting catcher in one of their new articles entitled TCB Off Season Orbit, which you can read at the posted link. Apparently, this is where the site answers fan comments and questions about the team going forward. No surprise, the subject of catcher came up:
Curt: This is tough. First, consider the amount of a qualifying offer to Castro: $17.2 million for a season. A $12 million increase from his 2015 salary, which would cut into financial flexibility that could be used on other players. The rest of the catching market isn’t attractive, unless you somehow like Matt Wieters, who may have some nice raw offensive stats until you realize he’s posted a lower WAR than Castro over the last three seasons and is a dreadful pitch-framer. Look, Castro’s shortcomings are obvious - not a current regime guy, doesn’t hit, seems to struggle with catching mechanics at the worst possible times, maddeningly complains when he’s rung up on a called third strikes. But who do you replace him with for next season? Jettisoning him just because he’s Jason Castro doesn’t make you a better team – replacing him with a better option does, and those probably don’t exist. I’m not sold on Evan Gattis catching 130 games defensively (even though he graded out well on framing and throwing runners out, and improved pitch blocking). Max Stassi is solid defensively, but is a worse hitter than Castro. Tyler Heineman is an unknown. Garrett Stubbs is the best catching prospect in the system; he’s current in the AFL, hit really well across two levels in 2016 and has shown the ability to throw out runners at solid rates. But he’s still probably a full year away from the majors. It wouldn’t be a super popular move, but the Astros could do worse than making Castro a Qualifying Offer. They score a draft pick if the Red Sox or Braves (two teams down to spend money on serviceable catchers) decide to pay him $40 million, and remove a lot of uncertainty if he accepts.
I will give credit to Mr. Leister in that even though he gave an answer that I don't agree with, the one in bold, he at least gave credit where credit was due to El Oso Blanco for his 2016 season. His argument is at least done in a humbling sort of matter, recognizing that he doesn't have all the answers for what needs to be solved. I would say that he fails to recognize that Gattis started 50 games back there, or nearly half of what a starting catcher does in a typical regular season. And like everyone else, uses that as a catalyst to drive home the doubt casting. And just as well, he may also fail to realize that Evan Gattis' entire 2016 season was a crash course on both sides of the ball due to the hernia surgery and lack of a full spring training it caused, and was still able to put up such numbers that he did. But other than that, he at least admitted to not being all knowing as to what will happen.
Mr. Marbach, on the other hand, had an incredibly insulting and condescending sort of response:
Jason: I figured the last question was a good segue to this one. Jason Castro has unequivocally been one of the best pitch presenters in the sport the last couple seasons, and if you believe that the Astros espouse Mike Fast’s published thoughts on catcher value stemming largely from pitch presentation, then it begins to make sense that Jeff Luhnow has expressed “strong desire” to re-sign Castro. I definitely consider Castro a near-lock to receive a Qualifying Offer from the team, partially because I think they do want him back, and partially because re-signing him to a one year deal might actually be more desirable with Jake Rogers and Garrett Stubbs nearing Major League-readiness. I sincerely doubt Castro accepts a Qualifying Offer, but I do think he’ll definitely be tendered one. If the Astros are able to re-sign him at three years and $45-50 million, I would be thrilled, personally. If it starts going beyond that price - which is very possible - then I might begin to worry, but I’d likely still want him back. I’m not at all enthused about any of the other available catchers as primary backstops...including Evan Gattis. Wilson Ramos would obviously be a desirable (and expensive) free agency target were it not for his knee injury at the end of the season that now calls into question whether he’ll even be physically capable of catching next season. I don’t consider Matt Wieters an upgrade over Castro at this point - in fact, if you put most of your stock in current pitch presentation ability, Wieters is probably nowhere near as desirable as Castro, as Wieters has received below-average marks for five straight years from StatCorner’s catching report. It has been pointed out that Wieters would probably be able to learn to frame pitches better - after all, Castro did - but I have my doubts, personally...and certainly I doubt it happens during 2017. Max Stassi does not appear to be a starting Major League catcher, Tyler Heineman looks like he might have stalled in Triple-A...unfortunately, I don’t see very many good options as a primary catcher other than Jason Castro, at least for 2017. I’m aware many disagree with me, I just feel like our pitching staff will need any edge it can get with our home field going from a pretty pitcher-friendly park to a more hitter-friendly park next season. And no, I don’t think roughly 22 home runs per season (per an estimate from Daren Willman, creator of BaseballSavant) is going to be a huge difference to our pitching staff, but I do think it will affect it negatively, and I think there are enough question marks in the rotation already to render it foolish to upset the apple cart any further without dire cause.
You can tell, by the mere tone of this, it wreaks of so much bias. The biggest of this being a Castro bias, and thinking that somehow he needs to be kept on to give the farm system kids enough time to develop. Never mind that Evan Gattis already IS a major league player with a proven track record on both sides of the ball. He costs less, and gives you way more both on and off the field. Constructive criticism is one thing, but this response is far from it! You don't see any good options other than Castro, Mr. Marbach? Maybe you need to read my post on where Gattis actually stacks up defensively, and then you can come back and talk.
So yes, Mr. Marbach and Mr. Leister, I'm calling both of you out on your absurdities. Your responses to these questions keep reinforcing a mindset that catchers are a defensive only position and that having them bat poorly is okay or can be tolerated. Well, I'm not going to allow that mindset to keep prevailing, and will exterminate such talk and thought like bugs. You can call me any names you want to, but you know I'm right on this AND have the stats to prove it. Like it or not, Evan Gattis is apart of the core of the team that includes the trio of Correa, Springer and Altuve.
I only hope more people like THIS fan will continue to join me and the rest of the fan base, who have clear vision and see what Evan Gattis does out there on the diamond on both sides of the ball, in emphasizing the clear destiny of this Houston Astros organization:
I would give this "The Boyce" character a big hug, if I actually knew who he/she was. And don't worry, Boyce. Once Evan gets a full spring training to work even closer with the pitching staff on mechanics and such, he'll be a reckoning force back there. I mostly enjoy Boyce's response because he is actually talking some sense that the decision makers really need to be hearing right now. And so, once again, I have to make a plea to the one in charge of working the roster for 2017 into formation over the winter.
That's right, SB Nation's infamous Astros blog. The very place that has perpetually forbade me from utilizing their comments sections to prove my points anymore now have two of their writers, Jason Marbach and Curt Leister, posting their own nonsense about not letting Evan Gattis be starting catcher in one of their new articles entitled TCB Off Season Orbit, which you can read at the posted link. Apparently, this is where the site answers fan comments and questions about the team going forward. No surprise, the subject of catcher came up:
"Regarding Jason Castro: Should we extend him? If so, for how long? Who is in our farm to replace him, and/or who is available on the market?"- Matt B.
Their responses were, as usual, met with stat heavy dribble about framing and advanced metrics being the ONLY thing to consider for a catcher. First, the response from Mr. Leister:"Who is the opening day catcher?"- Leonard C.
Curt: This is tough. First, consider the amount of a qualifying offer to Castro: $17.2 million for a season. A $12 million increase from his 2015 salary, which would cut into financial flexibility that could be used on other players. The rest of the catching market isn’t attractive, unless you somehow like Matt Wieters, who may have some nice raw offensive stats until you realize he’s posted a lower WAR than Castro over the last three seasons and is a dreadful pitch-framer. Look, Castro’s shortcomings are obvious - not a current regime guy, doesn’t hit, seems to struggle with catching mechanics at the worst possible times, maddeningly complains when he’s rung up on a called third strikes. But who do you replace him with for next season? Jettisoning him just because he’s Jason Castro doesn’t make you a better team – replacing him with a better option does, and those probably don’t exist. I’m not sold on Evan Gattis catching 130 games defensively (even though he graded out well on framing and throwing runners out, and improved pitch blocking). Max Stassi is solid defensively, but is a worse hitter than Castro. Tyler Heineman is an unknown. Garrett Stubbs is the best catching prospect in the system; he’s current in the AFL, hit really well across two levels in 2016 and has shown the ability to throw out runners at solid rates. But he’s still probably a full year away from the majors. It wouldn’t be a super popular move, but the Astros could do worse than making Castro a Qualifying Offer. They score a draft pick if the Red Sox or Braves (two teams down to spend money on serviceable catchers) decide to pay him $40 million, and remove a lot of uncertainty if he accepts.
I will give credit to Mr. Leister in that even though he gave an answer that I don't agree with, the one in bold, he at least gave credit where credit was due to El Oso Blanco for his 2016 season. His argument is at least done in a humbling sort of matter, recognizing that he doesn't have all the answers for what needs to be solved. I would say that he fails to recognize that Gattis started 50 games back there, or nearly half of what a starting catcher does in a typical regular season. And like everyone else, uses that as a catalyst to drive home the doubt casting. And just as well, he may also fail to realize that Evan Gattis' entire 2016 season was a crash course on both sides of the ball due to the hernia surgery and lack of a full spring training it caused, and was still able to put up such numbers that he did. But other than that, he at least admitted to not being all knowing as to what will happen.
Mr. Marbach, on the other hand, had an incredibly insulting and condescending sort of response:
Jason: I figured the last question was a good segue to this one. Jason Castro has unequivocally been one of the best pitch presenters in the sport the last couple seasons, and if you believe that the Astros espouse Mike Fast’s published thoughts on catcher value stemming largely from pitch presentation, then it begins to make sense that Jeff Luhnow has expressed “strong desire” to re-sign Castro. I definitely consider Castro a near-lock to receive a Qualifying Offer from the team, partially because I think they do want him back, and partially because re-signing him to a one year deal might actually be more desirable with Jake Rogers and Garrett Stubbs nearing Major League-readiness. I sincerely doubt Castro accepts a Qualifying Offer, but I do think he’ll definitely be tendered one. If the Astros are able to re-sign him at three years and $45-50 million, I would be thrilled, personally. If it starts going beyond that price - which is very possible - then I might begin to worry, but I’d likely still want him back. I’m not at all enthused about any of the other available catchers as primary backstops...including Evan Gattis. Wilson Ramos would obviously be a desirable (and expensive) free agency target were it not for his knee injury at the end of the season that now calls into question whether he’ll even be physically capable of catching next season. I don’t consider Matt Wieters an upgrade over Castro at this point - in fact, if you put most of your stock in current pitch presentation ability, Wieters is probably nowhere near as desirable as Castro, as Wieters has received below-average marks for five straight years from StatCorner’s catching report. It has been pointed out that Wieters would probably be able to learn to frame pitches better - after all, Castro did - but I have my doubts, personally...and certainly I doubt it happens during 2017. Max Stassi does not appear to be a starting Major League catcher, Tyler Heineman looks like he might have stalled in Triple-A...unfortunately, I don’t see very many good options as a primary catcher other than Jason Castro, at least for 2017. I’m aware many disagree with me, I just feel like our pitching staff will need any edge it can get with our home field going from a pretty pitcher-friendly park to a more hitter-friendly park next season. And no, I don’t think roughly 22 home runs per season (per an estimate from Daren Willman, creator of BaseballSavant) is going to be a huge difference to our pitching staff, but I do think it will affect it negatively, and I think there are enough question marks in the rotation already to render it foolish to upset the apple cart any further without dire cause.
You can tell, by the mere tone of this, it wreaks of so much bias. The biggest of this being a Castro bias, and thinking that somehow he needs to be kept on to give the farm system kids enough time to develop. Never mind that Evan Gattis already IS a major league player with a proven track record on both sides of the ball. He costs less, and gives you way more both on and off the field. Constructive criticism is one thing, but this response is far from it! You don't see any good options other than Castro, Mr. Marbach? Maybe you need to read my post on where Gattis actually stacks up defensively, and then you can come back and talk.
So yes, Mr. Marbach and Mr. Leister, I'm calling both of you out on your absurdities. Your responses to these questions keep reinforcing a mindset that catchers are a defensive only position and that having them bat poorly is okay or can be tolerated. Well, I'm not going to allow that mindset to keep prevailing, and will exterminate such talk and thought like bugs. You can call me any names you want to, but you know I'm right on this AND have the stats to prove it. Like it or not, Evan Gattis is apart of the core of the team that includes the trio of Correa, Springer and Altuve.
I only hope more people like THIS fan will continue to join me and the rest of the fan base, who have clear vision and see what Evan Gattis does out there on the diamond on both sides of the ball, in emphasizing the clear destiny of this Houston Astros organization:
On first base and catcher:
What I really want to see the Astros do is to resign Luis Valbuena. My dream everyday lineup next year looks something like this:
C: Evan Gattis (More on that later)
1B: Luis Valbuena
2B: Jose Altuve
SS: Carlos Correa (Not Orlando Miller, whoever that is)
3B: Alex Bregman
LF: Free agent (Reddick, maybe?)
CF: Jake Marisnick (More on that later)
RF: George Springer
C: Evan Gattis (More on that later)
1B: Luis Valbuena
2B: Jose Altuve
SS: Carlos Correa (Not Orlando Miller, whoever that is)
3B: Alex Bregman
LF: Free agent (Reddick, maybe?)
CF: Jake Marisnick (More on that later)
RF: George Springer
The reasoning behind this is that I think Valbuena can be a very good player. His defense was good enough at third base and he also proved he can play first base. I would really like him to return on maybe a two-year deal. Not to mention, I think he can hit. We all saw how he was from May-July. It’s no surprise that we were at our best during that time. If we don’t bring him back, I think that we’ll have Gurriel at first and someone like Tyler White DHing. If White plays like he did in September and proves September was not a fluke, then I’ll be fine with him. However, I am concerned about him repeating that for a whole year. I would feel better if we had Valbuena on the team playing regularly instead of Tyler White, who I think is best in a backup spot.
At catcher, you may have noticed I put Evan Gattis there. Gattis is a far better offensive option than Jason Castro. You can’t argue with me on that. My main concern with Gattis was his defensive skills. However, he proved last year he can frame, he can throw runners out, and he can play defense at catcher. If he blocks pitches in the dirt better, I’ll be completely fine with letting Castro walk. I’m already fine with it, but more so if Gattis blocks better.
Finally, you may have noticed I put Marisnick in center. Marisnick can obviously play defense. However, he cannot hit a ball to save his life. If we bring back Valbuena and bring in someone to play left field, then I’ll be able to overlook Marisnick in center. I like Jake and I want to see him succeed. However, we can only afford his offense in center if we have someone to balance him out. Hence, that’s why I firmly believe we need to sign a guy like Valbuena or a Reddick or someone who can hit. Marisnick was our best center fielder last year and was very valuable with defense. However, his offense is suspect and I would prefer to bring in some external options to balance out his offensive woes.
Rant over. Go Astros.
PS, I liked this article and hope this becomes a thing this offseason. Keep it up, Jason.
Posted by The Boyce on Oct 26, 2016 | 10:33 AM
I would give this "The Boyce" character a big hug, if I actually knew who he/she was. And don't worry, Boyce. Once Evan gets a full spring training to work even closer with the pitching staff on mechanics and such, he'll be a reckoning force back there. I mostly enjoy Boyce's response because he is actually talking some sense that the decision makers really need to be hearing right now. And so, once again, I have to make a plea to the one in charge of working the roster for 2017 into formation over the winter.
Mr. Lunhow, I hope you are reading this as well. There is a lot riding on the decisions you make this off season, so I'm begging you, please do not make them lightly. Make us fans believe in the process by doing what is clearly right for this roster, and not allowing doubt, confusion, or skepticism cloud your better judgement as it does these insane beat writers.
Other teams will try to pry the Big White Bear from you with packages that look nice on the outside, but will only cause grief for you and this organization in the future. Do not be swayed! Just because these nice men offer you candy, doesn't mean you go jumping into their windowless van, to coin a phrase. No package out there is worthy of giving up your biggest power threat in the heart of the order, that is truly a natural born catcher. He is both a low risk/cost and a high reward/benefit/value, regardless of what his physical age is.
Keep Evan Gattis around as your starter. It's the right thing to do!
Original Photo Credit: Rob Leiter of Getty Images
Your Houston Astros starting catcher solution is right here, and has been here all along!
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