You Can't "Replace" This! You Just....CAN'T!
So in the midst of Spring Training getting underway in Florida, I still see so many articles trying to paint overly critical portraits of your people's champion and mine, Evan Gattis. The most recent one I found was from SB Nation's blog entitled "Beyond the Box Score" You can read that article here.
Now I'll admit, some of the charges made there do hold some weight, not unlike the weight lost by El Oso Blanco over the off season. Evan does still have some things to work on at the plate that do include increasing the overall batting average, improving plate discipline, pitch recognition and working the pitcher's counts to potentially draw more walks and get on base more to raise the percentage in that category, as well as score more runs. All things which, at least I'm very confident, he can and will work on once his rehab has completed its course.
But I decided to do some mathematical readjustments to his stat numbers, given a scenario in which Evan had gotten back even half of the hits that he lost to start 2015. Keep in mind, he went 0-for-23 in his first at bats of the season. Through this, we'll see once and for all why Gattis is anything but a "replacement" hitter. My formula is calculated under an assumption of the following scenarios:
1. That all of those first hits were for singles, at least.
2. Evan had double the amounts of sac flys.
3. He had 4 more walks and was hit one more time by a pitch.
Here is what I was able to calculate on those bases:
Actual 2015 stats:
BA - .246
OBP - .285
SLG - .463
OPS - .748
WAR - 0.5
Readjusted 2015 stats:
BA - .265
OBP - .290
SLG - .482
OPS - .772
Readjusted WAR - 1.06
So as you can see, they're not the biggest of adjustments or star-studded numbers for only hitting singles for half of those 23 plate appearances, would Evan have gotten them back. However, it is still a better look at a player that has a 1.6 WAR in his career, and might even have closer to a WAR of 2 lifetime had it not be for the early 2015 slump. And just imagine if any of those 23 plate appearances resulted in anything greater than a single? Possibly even a home run or two? Another one of those jaw-dropping triples?
The point of all of this is that Evan Gattis, while on a sabermetric level can be attempted to be labeled as a "replacement" hitter, is clearly far from it. Yes, he had some terrible luck early last season. But to come back from all of that, and still lead the Houston Astros ball club in both home runs and RBI while still legging out those awe-inspiring, club leading and record breaking 11 triples without a stolen base yet to his name, is something very far from being "replaceable."
Some new articles and video have just come out about Evan's approach to his rehab, and how Skipper Hinch is even still tampering with the possibility of Evan doing some backup catching in 2016 after not too long:
1. From Brian McTaggart of MLB.com: Gattis recovering from hernia surgery
2. From Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle: Gattis could eventually be in the catching picture
3. Video from MLB.com: Hinch on the versatility of Gattis
Both of those articles and Hinch's comments are just further proof of how much Evan Gattis cannot, and should not, be replaced. Neither can moments like these; the first pics of Evan Gattis at Spring Training courtesy of Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and Mark Berman, Fox26Houston sports director. Keep these Spring Training pics and updates coming, fellas! And to other fans and media folks that are fortunate enough to make it to Florida in the coming month, ya'll keep em coming, too!
Now I'll admit, some of the charges made there do hold some weight, not unlike the weight lost by El Oso Blanco over the off season. Evan does still have some things to work on at the plate that do include increasing the overall batting average, improving plate discipline, pitch recognition and working the pitcher's counts to potentially draw more walks and get on base more to raise the percentage in that category, as well as score more runs. All things which, at least I'm very confident, he can and will work on once his rehab has completed its course.
But I decided to do some mathematical readjustments to his stat numbers, given a scenario in which Evan had gotten back even half of the hits that he lost to start 2015. Keep in mind, he went 0-for-23 in his first at bats of the season. Through this, we'll see once and for all why Gattis is anything but a "replacement" hitter. My formula is calculated under an assumption of the following scenarios:
1. That all of those first hits were for singles, at least.
2. Evan had double the amounts of sac flys.
3. He had 4 more walks and was hit one more time by a pitch.
Here is what I was able to calculate on those bases:
Actual 2015 stats:
BA - .246
OBP - .285
SLG - .463
OPS - .748
WAR - 0.5
Readjusted 2015 stats:
BA - .265
OBP - .290
SLG - .482
OPS - .772
Readjusted WAR - 1.06
So as you can see, they're not the biggest of adjustments or star-studded numbers for only hitting singles for half of those 23 plate appearances, would Evan have gotten them back. However, it is still a better look at a player that has a 1.6 WAR in his career, and might even have closer to a WAR of 2 lifetime had it not be for the early 2015 slump. And just imagine if any of those 23 plate appearances resulted in anything greater than a single? Possibly even a home run or two? Another one of those jaw-dropping triples?
The point of all of this is that Evan Gattis, while on a sabermetric level can be attempted to be labeled as a "replacement" hitter, is clearly far from it. Yes, he had some terrible luck early last season. But to come back from all of that, and still lead the Houston Astros ball club in both home runs and RBI while still legging out those awe-inspiring, club leading and record breaking 11 triples without a stolen base yet to his name, is something very far from being "replaceable."
Some new articles and video have just come out about Evan's approach to his rehab, and how Skipper Hinch is even still tampering with the possibility of Evan doing some backup catching in 2016 after not too long:
1. From Brian McTaggart of MLB.com: Gattis recovering from hernia surgery
2. From Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle: Gattis could eventually be in the catching picture
3. Video from MLB.com: Hinch on the versatility of Gattis
Both of those articles and Hinch's comments are just further proof of how much Evan Gattis cannot, and should not, be replaced. Neither can moments like these; the first pics of Evan Gattis at Spring Training courtesy of Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and Mark Berman, Fox26Houston sports director. Keep these Spring Training pics and updates coming, fellas! And to other fans and media folks that are fortunate enough to make it to Florida in the coming month, ya'll keep em coming, too!
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Photo Credit: Brian McTaggart of MLB.com
 Photo Credit: Brian McTaggart of MLB.com
My favorite one so far: Evan greeting Jose Altuve as he reported to camp this weekend!
 Photo Credit: Mark Berman, Fox26Houston Sports Director
The Big White Bear may appear to be caged for now, but we all await the day when he can be set loose! :)
Breaking News: As I was proofreading this, I received two reassuring and hopeful updates this morning. The first from Mark Berman of Fox26Houston shows Evan doing some light jogging exercises while being monitored by a doctor, and all seems to be going really well. The second from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com showing Evan doing some light catching and throwing. These are the best pieces of news we could have received today. Thank you to both Mark and Brian for these updates! And keep it up, Evan! We all believe in you, dude!
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